Preface
Section I. INTRODUCTION
1. Climate Change – An overview
1.1. Introduction
1.2. What is climate change ?
1.3. Global warming/Greenhouse effect
1.4. The main indicators of climate change
1.5. Causes of climate change
1.5.1. Natural causes
1.5.2. Human causes
1.6. Greenhouse gases
1.6.1. Carbon dioxide (CO2)
1.6.2. Methane (CH4) Methane (CH4)
1.6.3. Nitrous oxide (N2O)
1.6.4. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
1.6.5. Water vapour (H2O)
1.7. Climate change projections
1.7.1. Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture
1.8. Agriculture as a source of GHGs
1.9. Impacts of climate change
1.9.1. Impacts on crop pests
1.10. Climate change threats to agriculture
1.11. Climate change imposed challenges for agriculture
1.12. Climate change scenarios and prediction models
1.13. Climate-resilient agriculture
1.13.1. Adaptation
1.13.2. Mitigation
1.14. Conclusions
2. Climate change, Crop pests and Food security
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Crop losses
2.3. Impact of climate change on crop pests
2.4. Pest evolution under climate change
2.4.1. Weeds
2.4.2. Insect pests
2.4.3. Disease pathogens
2.4.4. Nematode pathogens
2.5. Prediction modelling
2.6. Food security
2.7. Adaptation and mitigation
2.8. Research needs
2.8.1. Research and development
2.8.2. Technologies and practices
2.9. Conclusions
Section II. INSECT AND MITE PESTS
3. Climate change and insect Pest scenarios
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Insect pests under changing climate
3.3. Climate change and emerging pest problems in India
3.4. Effects of climate change on insect pests
3.5. Impacts of climate change on insect pests
3.6. Prediction modelling for insect pests
3.7. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
3.7.1. Use of synthetic pesticides
3.7.2. Use of bio-pesticides (plant extracts)
3.7.3. Cultural practices
3.7.4. Breeding climate-resilient varieties
3.7.5. GIS based risk mapping of crop pests
3.7.6. Integrated pest management
3.8. Future pest threats
3.9. Future lines of work
3.10. Conclusions
4. Effects of climate change variables on insect pests
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Change in crop pest behaviour due to climate change
4.3. Increased temperatures
4.3.1. How rising temperatures affects insect pests
4.3.2. Effect of temperature on natural enemies
4.3.3. Effect of temperature on specific insect pests
4.4. Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels
4.4.1. Nutrient value
4.4.2. Influence on plant defences
4.4.3. Impact on natural enemies
4.5. Varying precipitation patterns
4.6. Drought
4.6.1. Effect of drought on population dynamics
4.7. Combined effect of elevated temperature and CO2
4.8. Conclusions
5. Impacts of climate change induced consequences on insect pests
5.1. Introduction
5.1.1. Projected impacts of climate change on insect pests
5.2. Expansion of geographical distribution
5.3. Increase in number of generations
5.4. Increased overwintering survival
5.5. Pest population dynamics and outbreaks
5.6. Risk of introducing invasive alien species
5.7. Crop-pest interactions
5.8. Loss of ecological biodiversity
5.9. Changes in phenology
5.10. Increased incidence of insect vectored plant diseases
5.11. Disruption of plant-pollinator interactions
5.12. Reduced effectiveness of pest management strategies
5.12.1. Reduced effectiveness of transgenic crops for pest management
5.12.2. Breakdown of host plant resistance
5.12.3. Reduced activity and abundance of natural enemies
5.12.4. Increased pesticide usage
5.13. Conclusions
6. Development of prediction models for insect pests
6.1. Introduction
6.2. InfoCrop models
6.3. Climate matching
6.3.1. CLIMEX model
6.3.2. Match climates
6.4. Empirical models
6.5. Simulation models
6.5.1. Simulation of population dynamics
6.5.2. Coupling of population dynamics model to crop growth model
6.6. Insect phenology based modelling
6.6.1. Insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM)
6.6.2. ILCYM applications
6.6.3. Integrated pest management (Examples)
6.6.4. Main advantages of ILCYM modelling
6.7. Conclusions
7. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for insect pests
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Adaptation
7.2.1. Promotion of resource conservation technologies
7.2.2. Increased biodiversity
7.2.3. Avoidance of one ‘high input variety’ or one breed of crop variety
7.2.4. Ecologically based pest management
7.2.5. Facilitating adaptation to climate change
7.3. Mitigation
7.3.1. Pest monitoring
7.3.2. Rescheduling of crop calendars
7.3.3. GIS based risk mapping of crop pests
7.3.4. Screening of pesticides with novel modes of action
7.3.5. Improved pest control
7.3.6. Behaviour modification
7.3.7. Precision pest management
7.3.8. Breeding for pest resistance
7.3.9. Biological control
7.3.10. Chemical control
7.3.11. Integrated pest management
7.4. Conclusions
Section III. DISEASE PATHOGENS
8. Climate change and disease pathogen scenarios
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Effects of climate change on disease pathogens
8.2.1. Direct effects
8.2.2. Indirect effects
8.3. Impacts of climate change on disease pathogens
8.4. Predictive models in plant pathosystems
8.5. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
8.6. Future threats
8.7. Research needs
8.8. Future prospects
8.9. Conclusions
9. Effects of climate change variables on disease pathogens
9.1. Introduction
9.2. CO2 enrichment
9.3. Elevated temperatures
9.4. Varying precipitation patterns
9.5. Frequency and magnitude of extreme events
9.6. Elevated levels of atmospheric pollutants
9.6.1. Ozone
9.6.2. Acid rain
9.6.3. Elevated ultraviolet B
9.7. Conclusions
10. Impacts of climate change induced consequences on disease pathogens
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Expansion of geographical distribution
10.3. Host plant–pathogen interactions
10.4. Changes in crop loss
10.5. Vector-borne diseases
10.6. Disease pathogens
10.6.1. Viral pathogens
10.6.2. Bacterial pathogens
10.7. Disease complexes
10.8. Crop yield
10.9. Disease outbreaks
10.10. Breakdown of host plant resistance
10.11. Emergence of new and intense disease problems
10.12. Increased pesticide usage
10.13. Food security
10.14. Reduced efficacy of disease management strategies
10.15. Conclusions
11. Development of prediction models for disease pathogens
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Development of prediction models
11.3. Complexity of predicting the effect of climate change on a pathogen
11.4. Impact models
11.4.1. Climate matching
11.4.2. Empirical models
11.4.3. Population models
11.4.4. Simulation models
11.5. Predictive models in horticultural systems and the open field
11.6. Potential adaptations of cropping systems
11.7. Conclusions
12. Climate Change Adaptation and mitigation strategies for disease management
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Plant disease management under climate change
12.3. Adaptation and mitigation
12.3.1. Enhanced surveillance
12.3.2. Quarantine and exclusion
12.3.3. Physical methods
12.3.4. Cultural methods
12.3.5. Chemical methods
12.3.6. Biological methods
12.3.7. Microbial interactions
12.3.8. Host resistance
12.3.9. Transgenic disease resistant varieties
12.3.10. Integrated Disease management (IDM)
12.4. Future lines of work
12.4.1. Enhanced research and development
12.4.2. Enhanced public and professional awareness
12.4.3. Integrated and adaptive policy development
12.4.4. Need for adoption of novel approaches
12.4.5. Need for biodiversity based approach
12.5. Conclusions
Section IV. NEMATODE PATHOGENS
13. Climate change and nematode pathogen scenarios
13.1. Introduction
13.2. Effects of climate change on nematodes
13.2.1. Increased temperatures
13.2.2. Elevated CO2 levels
13.2.3. Precipitation patterns
13.2.4. Drought
13.2.5. Air pollutants
13.3. Impacts of climate change on nematodes
13.3.1. Expansion of geographical range
13.3.2. Increase in additional generations
13.3.3. Impact on overwintering
13.4. Prediction modelling for nematodes
13.5. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
13.5.1. Biotechnological approaches to nematode resistance
13.6. Conclusions
14. Effects of climate change variables on nematode pathogens
14.1. Introduction
14.2. Elevated temperatures
14.3. Changes in water regimes
14.4. Combined changes in temperature and moisture regimes
14.5. CO2 enrichment
14.6. Severe droughts
14.7. Air pollutants
14.8. Conclusions
15. Impacts of climate change induced consequences on nematode pathogens
15.1. Introduction
15.2. Expansion of geographical distribution
15.3. Breakdown of nematode resistance
15.3.1. Host defence mechanisms
15.3.2. Soybean resistance genes and soybean cyst nematode virulence genes
15.3.3. Prospect
15.4. Increase in number of generations
15.5. Conclusions
16. Development of prediction models for nematode pathogens
16.1. Introduction
16.2. Model to simulate the density changes of carrot cyst nematode, Heterodera carotae
16.3. SIMBA-NEM model to simulate the population dynamics of Radopholus similis and Pratylenchus coffeae on banana
16.4. Conclusions
17. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategiesfor nematode pathogens
17.1. Introduction
17.2. Adaptation and mitigation
17.2.1. Alternative management strategies
17.3. Physical methods
17.3.1. Solarization
17.4. Cultural methods
17.4.1. Crop rotation
17.4.2. Fallowing
17.4.3. Multicropping
17.4.4. Green manuring
17.4.5. Time of planting
17.4.6. Weed control
17.5. Biological methods
17.6. Host resistance
17.6.1. Pre-emptive plant breeding
17.6.2. Biotechnological approaches
17.7. Integrated nematode management
17.8. Innovative technologies
17.8.1. Precision agriculture
17.8.2. Genetically engineered and traditional host resistance
17.8.3. Advisory programmes
17.9. Future prospects
17.10. Conclusions
Section V. WEEDS
18. Climate change and weed scenarios
18.1. Introduction
18.2. Crop losses
18.3. Effects of climate change on weeds
18.4. Impacts of climate change on weeds
18.5. Prediction modelling for weeds
18.6. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
18.6.1. Quarantine barriers
18.6.2. Eradication and/or containment
18.6.3. Herbicides
18.6.4. Biological control
18.6.5. Other control methods
18.7. Future thrusts
18.8. Conclusions
19. Effects of climate change variables on weeds
19.1. Introduction
19.2. Elevated temperatures
19.3. CO2 enrichment
19.3.1. C4 weeds in C3 crops
19.3.2. C3 weeds in C4 crops
19.3.3. C3 weeds in C3 crops
19.3.4. C3 and C4 weeds in C3 crops
19.3.5. C4 weeds in C4 crops
19.4. Varying precipitation patterns
19.5. Extreme weather events
19.5.1. Drought
19.5.2. Floods
19.5.3. Cyclones
19.5.4. Severe frosts
19.5.5. Fire
19.6. Phenology
19.7. Land use change
19.8. Increased atmospheric ozone (O3)
19.9. Effect of multiple climatic factors on weeds
19.10. Conclusions
20. Impacts of climate change induced consequences on weeds
20.1. Introduction
20.2. Expansion of geographical distribution
20.3. Change in functioning and productivity of ecosystems
20.4. Increase in exotic invasive weed species
20.5. Shifts in competitive balance
20.6. Weed shifts
20.6.1. Range shifts
20.6.2. Niche shifts
20.6.3. Trait shifts
20.6.4. Damage shifts
20.7. Increased number of generations
20.8. Development of super weeds and sleeper weeds
20.9. Herbicide-climate interactions
20.10. Impact on weed management practices
20.10.1. Biological control
20.10.2. Mechanical control
20.11. Human health
20.12. Conclusions
21. Development of prediction models for weeds
21.1. Introduction
21.2. Geographical distribution models
21.2.1. Correlative models
21.2.2. Mechanistic models
21.3. Species distribution models
21.4. Issues to be considered when using weed distribution models
21.5. Early warning systems models
21.6. General limitations to modelling
21.7. Recent developments
21.8. Conclusions
22. Climate change Adaptation and mitigation strategies for weeds
22.1. Introduction
22.2. Adapting weed management
22.2.1. Continuing current control options
22.2.2. Adopting weed management options suitable under current extreme weather conditions
22.2.3. Developing new weed management techniques adapted for climate change
22.3. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
22.3.1. Plant quarantine
22.3.2. Physical methods
22.3.3. Cultural methods
22.3.4. Chemical methods
22.3.5. Biological control
22.3.6. Precision weed management
22.3.7. Transgenic herbicide tolerant crops
22.3.8. Integrated weed management
22.3.9. Non-conventional weed management strategies for modern agriculture
22.4. Conclusions
Section VI. FUTURE THRUSTS AND CONCLUSIONS
23. The way forward
23.1. Introduction
23.2. Diversification of current crop protection strategies to mitigate climate change impacts
23.2.1. Resilient cropping systems
23.2.2. Breeding for and sustaining resistance
23.2.3. Biological control
23.2.4. Pest risk analysis
23.2.5. Soil management
23.2.6. Landscape management
23.2.7. Ecosystem-based strategy
23.2.8. Human resource development
23.3. Potential benefits
23.4. Policy and regulatory issues
23.5. Future lines of work
23.5.1. Research and development
23.5.2. Training and education
23.5.3. Policy support
23.6. Conclusions
References
Annexures
Annexure I Glossary
Annexure II Acronyms
Subject Index